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PRM-103 Assessing Consequences and Calculating Risk (8 CPE) is a Course

PRM-103 Assessing Consequences and Calculating Risk (8 CPE)

Started Mar 29, 2021

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Full course description

PRM-103 Assessing Consequences and Calculating Risk

In this course, students will gain an understanding of consequences and its role in the national strategy of protecting the US critical infrastructure. Using the National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) as a resource, you will gain insight into the nature of the critical infrastructure risk management approach and the importance of assessing consequences. Certificate candidates will be exposed to the consequences of natural disasters and terrorist attacks that have already occurred. Using these real-world examples, students will gain a frame of reference for the consequences (i.e, events, issues, costs, etc.) associated with these hazards.

This course will also guide you through the process of assessing consequences including the implications for assessing the risk associated with critical infrastructure assets. You will learn how to quantify and incorporate consequences in your risk assessment. A background in infrastructure protection and/or Risk Assessment is not necessary to succeed in this course. An understanding of threats, hazards, and vulnerabilities will be helpful to those taking this course.

Course Learning Outcomes: 

Upon completion of this course, you will be able to:

  • Describe the role of consequence assessment in U. S. infrastructure protection
  • Understand the importance of consequences to the critical infrastructure risk management approach
  • Identify the steps in conducting a consequences assessment 
  • Use FEMA’s tools to conduct a consequence assessment
  • Identify consequences associated with an asset and their importance to assessing risk

Course Reading Materials: 

The following documents, articles, standards, and other reference materials will be used as a basis for this course and are considered mandatory reading for completion of the course. Content from any of these sources may be used as part of the quizzes and other assessments. Specific reading assignments from these sources are included with each Learning Module. Where possible, reading materials are linked from within each Module to the online Course Library; otherwise, external sources will launch in a new window/tab. [NOTE: The use of any private company’s or vendor’s resources are strictly for illustrative purposes and information provided about the Module topic and does not imply any endorsement or recommendation of such vendor or their products or services by InfraGard (INMA) or NISRU.]

 Required Readings: are referenced below and associated with each learning module.

 Assignments/Exercises:

For the assignment/exercise in each Learning Module, if you choose to do something related to your own business, you have two choices – (1) use only non-proprietary and non-confidential information actually from your business or (2) use similar information from a fictitious company that you create or that an instructor provides through a description and a series of assumptions. 

 Learning Module #1:  Consequences and Risk – A Macro Perspective   

Module Description: In this module certificate candidates will learn the importance of consequences and its role in the national strategy of protecting the US critical infrastructure. We will use the National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) as a resource, to help students understand how consequence assessment is used in protecting the US critical infrastructure, including informing subsequent planning actions to deter the threat, mitigate vulnerabilities, or minimize the consequences associated with a terrorist attack or other incidents. To provide perspective when considering consequences, this module includes information on real-world consequence data, in economic terms, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the U.S. Department of Commerce as an example of the types of consequences surrounding certain major disasters that have occurred. 

Upon completion of this module the learner will be able to:

  • Explain the nature and use of the National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP)
  • Describe the role of consequence assessment in infrastructure protection and the NIPP
  • Understand the nature of the critical infrastructure risk management approach and the role of assessing consequences
  • Articulate how the critical infrastructure risk management approach complements and supports the Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) process conducted by regional, state, and urban area jurisdictions

Required Reading: To complete this module, you should read the following:  

Required Website and Framework Exploration:

Critical Thinking Questions: The following questions are intended to spur your thinking beyond just this topic, how it may relate to the other topics, and how it might be applied to an organization or a Critical Infrastructure Sector.

  • How would the Risk Management Framework be applied in a small private company?
  • What concepts of the NIPP apply to “small towns”?

Module #1 Assignment/Exercise:

As stated in your readings, it is important to think of risk as influenced by the nature and magnitude of a threat or hazard, the vulnerabilities to that threat or hazard, and the consequences that could result. Consequence analysis ideally should address both direct and indirect effects. Many assets, systems, and networks depend on connections to other critical infrastructure to function. 

Choose a building (can be fictional or real) or other assets that are part of the critical infrastructure.  In your effort to address the consequences of a given threat (you pick the threat) discuss, at a high level,  the consequence categories you would include and address both direct and indirect affects you would consider. Use no more than two pages to document your findings.

Guidelines for completing your assignment

Apply the concepts from the NIPP supplement to help with your assignment

 Learning Module #2 – Real-World Consequences of Natural Hazards

Module Description: When a natural hazard becomes a disaster, it can have long-lasting effects. However,  understanding the true breadth, variety, and extent of their effects can be difficult, at best. In this course, certificate candidates will be exposed to the consequences of natural disasters that have already occurred. Using real-world examples of disasters, students will gain a frame of reference for the consequences (i.e, events, issues, costs, etc.)  associated with natural hazards. This should help students to think beyond the obvious when assessing consequences. Most importantly it provides insight into the need to address both direct and indirect effects when assessing consequences.

Upon completion of this module the learner will be able to:

  • Understand the importance of assessing both direct and indirect consequences
  • Explain why there is a sharp increase in natural hazards and disasters globally, during the past 20 years.
  • Describe how underlying existing conditions contribute to the consequences of a disaster
  • Explain why a demand shock, a supply shock, and a financial shock were part of the consequences of the Covid pandemic 

Required Reading: To complete this module, you should read the following:

Required Website and Framework Exploration:

Critical Thinking Questions: The following questions are intended to spur your thinking beyond just this topic, how it may relate to the other topics, and how it might be applied to an organization or a Critical Infrastructure Sector.

  • What types of indirect consequences would you look for in assessing the consequences of a natural hazard - a major hurricane - for a small to medium size commercial enterprise?
  • How would that differ if the hazard was a pandemic?

Module #2 Assignment/Exercise:

Assume you were a manager/owner of a small business in a geography that might be hit by a major disaster. Choose a disaster that is a substantial or high risk for your geography or feel free to use a pandemic as well.  In two pages, discuss the direct and indirect consequences for both your business and the community in general. 

Guidelines for Conducting Your Assessment 

Remember to thoroughly investigate the indirect consequences, especially in terms of your customer, the ability of your business to get needed supplies and materials to conduct business, or if your business is a producer of essential goods or services to the community, the impact that will have.

 Learning Module #3 – Real-World Consequences of Man-Made and Terrorism Hazards

Module Description: A terrorist attack as well as a man-made hazard can have a far reaching and often devastating impact on a community.  As with natural disasters,  it can be difficult to anticipate and understanding the extent of their effects. In this module, certificate candidates will be exposed to the consequences of man-made and terrorist events using those that have already occurred as an example. These real-world examples of man-made and terrorist events provide an opportunity for  students to gain insight into actual consequences associated with these events including the lessons learned. It is not meant to present an all-inclusive list of consequences associated with man-made and terrorist events.  However, it will provide students with a vantage point to promote a better understanding of consequences assessment. Among the most important aspects of this module is the need to address both direct and indirect effects, and to think creatively  when assessing consequences.

Upon completion of this module the learner will be able to:

  • Understand the importance of recognizing disruptions and the consequences of those disruptions resulting from a terrorist attacks and/or man-made disasters
  • Explain the consequences of a terrorist attack in terms of the different types of losses
  • Differentiate between direct costs and indirect costs when assessing consequences
  • Understand consequences from a macro perspective through the lenses of the insurance industry and the economic implications for businesses and the government

Required Reading: To complete this module, you should read the following:

Required Website and Framework Exploration:

Critical Thinking Questions: The following questions are intended to spur your thinking beyond just this topic, how it may relate to the other topics, and how it might be applied to an organization or a Critical Infrastructure Sector.

  • How would direct and indirect consequences of a terrorist attack differ from the consequences of a natural hazard?
  • What would you look for in assessing the consequences of disruptions resulting from a terrorist attack and/or man-made disaster and how would that apply to a small business enterprise or local government? 
  • Consider whether the indirect consequences of a terrorist attack, in terms of cost, would be  greater or lesser than the  direct consequences for a small to medium size commercial enterprise.

Module #3 Assignment/Exercise:

Research at least two major terrorist incidents that have a occurred in any part of the world. In no more than 3 pages, compare the consequences of both. For each of those incidents which you have chosen,  discuss whether direct or indirect consequences overall were more costly in terms of economics, death and injury, and other personal human cost.

Guidelines for Conducting Your Assessment 

Remember to pay special attention to disruptions and the indirect consequences, especially issues like supply chain disruption, psychological impact that could affect commerce, the effect on business, etc. 

 Learning Module #4 – Assessing Consequences, Tools and Techniques

Module Description: In this course, certificate candidates will focus on consequences from the perspective of the adverse effects of a terrorist attack (or a hazard event) including the nature and severity of losses sustained because of such an incident. You will learn to assess consequences through the process of estimating the probable damage or loss that a target may sustain as a result of a successful attack of a specific type or a hazard event. We will begin by covering consequences expressed in terms of fatalities, injuries, property damage, economic losses, or other types of adverse effects, such as psychological or social impacts. Students will also be introduced to consequences as a function of business impact and will be provided with an overview of the tools and methodologies provided by FEMA including available technology.

Upon completion of this module the learner will be able to:

  • Explain consequences in terms of fatalities, injuries, property damage, economic losses, or other types of adverse effects, such as psychological or social impacts.
  • Understand the role of the nature of the target and, therefore, the magnitude of potential losses as a result of an attack or hazard event and how they  are determined by importance or criticality of the asset’s function.
  • Use FEMA’s tools to conduct a consequence assessment
  • Identify easily overlooked sources of information used for quantifying consequences 

 Required Reading: To complete this module, you should read the following:

Required Website and Framework Exploration:

Critical Thinking Questions: The following questions are intended to spur your thinking beyond just this topic, how it may relate to the other topics, and how it might be applied to an organization or a Critical Infrastructure Sector. 

  • A study conducted one year after 9/11 by the Comptroller of New York City showed the value of locally collected data. The report examines six categories of economic factors that adversely impacted the City. Using the info collected by NY as a frame of reference, what kind of information would you gather, and which categories would you use if you were assessing consequences of a single building destroyed by either a terrorist event or a natural hazard?
  • For your single building, who will be impacted by the loss of product/service? How much time to return to normalcy? What is the impact to the local economy and the regional economy of the disruption?

Module #4 Assignment/Exercise:

Despite the relatively small geographic footprint of the World Trade Center attack, there was approximately $94 billion in estimated loss with economic ripples felt well beyond New York City. Hurricane Katrina, on the other hand, devastated an area roughly the size of Great Britain, and after more than two years, and despite more than $30 billion in federal relief, significant problems still existed in areas like New Orleans and Gulfport-Biloxi. Studies on the aftermath of Katrina and the 9/11 attacks reveal many sources of information quantifying consequences that were previously overlooked.  In two pages or less outline the kinds of information that you would be looking for in doing a consequence assessment that might be overlooked.

Guidelines for Conducting Your Assessment 

Use the FEMA assigned reading material to guide you through the kind of information you should be looking for.